In this short clip, Patrick Bet-David, Barry Habib, Adam Sosnick, Tom Ellsworth talk about the unemployment rate under Biden.
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The FED thinks that the job Market's so Great you got James bold you got all of Them on Parade saying we got blowout Jobs number BS okay number one in January showed 517 000 job Creations That is not for real what they had what We had was we had a seasonal adjustment The numbers showed we lost 2.5 million Jobs but they said you know January we Usually use three million so poof 500 000 jobs created we did not create those But what's even more egregious take a Look Rob just scroll through real quick To the next one I want to show you so That this is the 517 right it really Would have been 2.5 million losses on The next one and go ahead and scroll Through if you can And when you when you I wanted to show You the thing from the BLS just go to The very next slide just yeah just Advance it to the next one you see the Bottom left it says the arrow I don't Know if you see there yeah just Advance It to the very next slide there you go At the bottom there you see what's this 2.5 million losses that's from the BLS You can't play with that now look at the Next one the next one's absolutely crazy Pat Look at these numbers guys yes Bureau of Labor Statistics right it's our Government folks that's our government So take a look at what they showed from
The household survey which as you all Know that's what he's that's where you Get the unemployment rate yeah there you Go they claimed in January we created 894 000 jobs but what they did was they Made an adjustment called a population Control effect what was that they picked Up some undocumented workers from early 2022. now any of us logically wouldn't You just wouldn't you just go back and Say oh let's revise the numbers no no Pat you know what they did although they Were never created in January 2023 they Put 810 000 jobs as created in January 2023 That's why the unemployment rate went Down instead of going up without that Right well you're you're kidding no That's right from the BLS that's right From this so those 810 were created in 2022 but they you they put it in 2023. Now I don't want to this came out February 3rd guess what happened four Days later by the way What was the big 510 no the uh State of The Union Address was four days later Okay so now who knows if they're related I'm not going to say they are they are And I just think it's kind of Coincidental but now when we take a look At something like this that was what Happened in January let's go to February's numbers February's numbers Where I thought I think very indicative
If you wouldn't mind just go right to The next slide brother so this shows you What it would have been it would have Been 3.9 without the seasonal adjustment Instead of 3.4 now in February's numbers Here's what we got it showed 311 go to The very next slide if you can 311 000 jobs created right but you see on The bottom in yellow there was a big Jump in this one category that says if You're unemployed for five weeks or less That jumped by 343 000 people so go to the next slide this Kind of illustrates it so that's a Bucket that bucket jumped by 343 000. so What goes into the bucket people that Just got unemployed what drains the Bucket if you either got another job or You're unemployed less than five weeks If the job market is so hot we know that The jobless claims reportedly that week Were only 194 000 near very very low so You're not getting the you're not Getting the inflow into the bucket but It's not draining because people either Aren't getting jobs or they're F or They're they're putting be in the Position here where they're staying Unemployed that's why you see this going Up That's so wild that they they presented The way they do to say it's the lowest In how many years lowest 57 years 50 Something years hey it's the lowest and
This is lowest than that so okay so so Barry if what you're saying is true and Let's just say it is based on the Numbers you're given here it's not like We're you're you're getting the number From a a survey then that means the Economy is worse than it really is is That a fair assessment we have less Full-time jobs now than we did back in May of 2022. much of the job gains are Part-time workers much of the job gains Are people working well we have less Full-time workers That's not good now Pat the next one's Going to really blow your mind check This out now we got all these job gains Right go to the very next slide if you Can please rob this one's really Interesting do you see that chart on the Bottom there yes that chart on the Bottom shows covid yeah but what these Are is hospitality and Leisure workers Right this has been the engine of growth Sure most of the job Gates have come From this category but it's not real Growth you're just putting these poor People back to work right but if you Notice we're almost back to Trend do you See that how much we're even lower than That but but eventually let's say we put Everybody back there's not that much More juice left to be squeezed here Right And if you take a look at the job
Openings and labor turnover known as the Joltz report this is job postings Yep This category last month was down 194 000. so this tells me the labor Market's About to take a negative turn If the labor and I'm with you I I'm I'm Fully there and I I've been saying this For a few months where I think that's That's the number no one's talking about Okay but let's go there let's go there You your background for people that Don't know your background I mean if You've been on you've been on a couple Other times we had you on a podcast your Background for people that don't know This you uh have won the crystal ball Award for the most accurate real estate Forecaster in 2017 this is through Zillow in 2019 and 2020. you're the only Three time I believe right okay so You've been able to successfully Forecast what's going to be happening That's kind of how what you're known for With that part of your success you've Done other things but this is specific To this but we have a great great team It's not just me our team you know It's impossible for you to do it by Yourself you need the right people to Give you the data but still your name is Tied to you based on the data you get These are the forecasts you made If these numbers are the numbers you're Showing and we just had what's going on
Right now with Silicon Valley Bank okay And Powell is going to be sitting here a Lot of people were saying well before Silicon Valley Bank it was going to Raise the rate by half a point and maybe Another half a point and then back to Back you know quarter quarter now some People are saying he's not going to do Anything let alone some people are Saying he may even cut and lower it so What is your forecast on based on this Based on inflation based on Silicon Valley Bank what do you think Powell's Going to do next with interest rates Okay so interest rates is very Interesting because mortgage rates are Going to be more determined by inflation And the FED will have more of an impact On shorter term rates and also the stock Market so I believe that the FED will More than likely have a difficult time Hiking more than a quarter percent I Think a half a percent is off the table I think maybe zero I don't think they'll Cut at this meeting but I think that It'll either be a quarter or no move at All maybe a pause just to see things Settle down because remember the fed by Moving rates up too quickly has caused These imbalances things will break now The problem with the FED is that they Don't look at inflation mortgage rates And real estate for that matter will be Highly motivated and driven by inflation
I have a couple of slides there Rob That's probably going to be in the Beginning there's there's a slide there How mortgage rates follow inflation if You could see the correlation Um okay this shows you what happens During recession this shows you mortgage Rates go down during every recession so That that we I believe we're headed for Recession as a matter of fact while We're on the topic of recession look at The next slide very very interesting Rob Uh go up one I'm sorry go up one yeah Why haven't we not been in a recession Maybe we are we already had two quarters Of negative GDP Pat but take a look at Credit card balances the the Um gray area that's the recession Followed by the pandemic every everybody Forgets we had a recession before the Pandemic two months before it but credit Card balances on top were way up and the Savings rate was like 10 percent that Big spike in savings was the stimulus That went into people's savings account Fake but but look at what they did with It they wisely paid off their credit Cards they couldn't spend it on anything Else notice how they drain their savings And it paid off credit cards then we got Another stimulus check but we spent that Even faster but what did we do we bought A lot of name brand stuff that we got Don't worry got another one coming boom
And then once that stopped people liked That stimulus lifestyle how do you keep It going Pat you charge up your credit Cards which have low balances and you Drain your savings we've gone from a 10 Savings account to three and a half Percent and we now owe more on our Credit cards than ever in history even This has to have a limit sometimes and That's when we hit the wall 940 billion Dollars credit card the reports came in By the way savings rate was the lowest We've had since uh it's a long time Since 17 years ago I think was 2.4 Percent savings rate in February I want To say these are scary numbers to see That so again saying that saying that Powell uh uh is almost cornered now with This crisis to have to either not touch It or lower it Tom do you think Powell Is going to still raise rates do you Think he's gonna delay it 30 60 days to See how the Market's gonna react to this To see if any other banks are going to React to this what do you think Powell's Going to do next well right now I think It it depends on the next uh 48 Hours uh Today was a rough day on the market but Not a cataclysmic day on the market uh I I'm I'm with Barry I think a half points Off the table now I think it's a quarter Point but if there is any jitteriness in The next 48 hours in banking stocks like There's Fallout they still need to find
A buyer for Maine Silicon Valley Bank Remember they only found HSBC to buy the UK one and PNC on Sunday night said nah I'm out they wanted PNC tourist and U.S Bank which are the top three banks at The next tier they wanted one of those Preferably PNC because of a stronger Balance sheet to pick pick up United States svb if nobody picks that up you Know it's gonna I think you're gonna see Jitters and if there are Jitters I think Powell may go zero next Thursday it's The 22nd yeah it's like yeah we got a Week right yeah it's what's today okay So we got a week in a day so next Wednesday if it's jittery next Wednesday Powell may go zero but I believe he's Only doing 25. okay so here's a question You gotta ask how many people And how much you think Powell Communicates with Biden with Yellen how Much communication you think there is With them and Biden right now right There sends 14 text messages a day and Receives fourteen hundred okay so how Quickly you think after this event I'm Not being funny I'm saying you know I Think everybody's hammering I got you Tom so how much you think right now a Emergency call or meeting has been made With all of them to say the following Hey Jerome we know we can't tell you What to do but here's what I want you to Be thinking about we both know what's
Going to happen if you raise the rates a Half a point The reason why this happened with Silicon Valley Bank is because the rates Increasing the way it did and that kind Of messed them up and I got track how Many more Banks like that are out there I don't know but if you increase it the Way you were gonna increase it a point To point and a half over the next four Five six months this may be the time for You to pump the brakes at least for 90 Days to see how this reacts do you think That's the responsible call for yelling And Biden to make to Powell I think Yellen made that call on Friday Afternoon after They seized svb in the Morning they knew where the dominoes Were going they were watching the market I believe that call happened before Dinner time on Friday so if you like This clip and you want to watch another One click right here and if you want to Watch the entire podcast click right Here All right Foreign
