In this short clip, Patrick Bet-David, Adam Sosnick, Vincent Oshana and Tom Ellsworth react to staggering housing market.
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Goldman Sachs predicts that home prices Will sink 19 in Austin 12 in Seattle 16 In Phoenix 15 in San Francisco by late 2024 compared to late 2022 levels while The housing market overall remains tight Those four cities have seen big Increases in inventory and supplies Overwhelming demand Goldman sees a 6.1 Percent decline in home prices Nationwide for 2023 as mortgage rates Head back to six and a half percent Which could be attributed to Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hiking cycle Housing affordability is currently at Historic lows and median existing home Prices for all housing types in January Was 359 which is 1.3 percent increase From the same month in 2022 sales of Existing homes have dropped 12 straight Months and buyers are starting to gain More purchasing power and potentially Benefit from lower home prices Tom Well what we're getting is what's called A rollback and a rollback is when maybe Something spikes up and then it rolls Back immediately because the maybe the Spike wasn't uh what it should be all Those cities Austin Seattle Phoenix and San Francisco had real big spikes Between July of 21 and the end of 22. And so now that's kind of coming back Down a little bit and those people right Now are panicking because you know Realtor knocks on your door and says
Hello sir yeah you know your home was Worth uh 450 a year ago now your home's Worth seven they're looking at that They're like I should Harvest this Profit and so they're putting them on The market but they're putting them on The market at a time where the prices Are shifting and so it was so much on The market if you can stomach the Interest rates like six and a half right Now those markets are good place to Start uh looking around to buy I know That doesn't help you with any here in South Florida we were talking about you Looking for a condo South Florida not The place to be doing that right now it Has hasn't shifted that much but Pat What we're seeing is a rollback in the Super Spike and now there's so much on The market buyers have choices so buyers With good credit they can get that and Stomach a six percent six and a half Percent mortgage have an opportunity Here and by the way if the rates go down In a year and you refi at 375 or four But um that's what we're seeing in these Markets it's not the same in the rest of The United States so is this a good time To buy or sell well if you're in a Market where the rollback's coming back And there's some you know some Opportunities there and I would compare The price that you're looking at on the Rollback to January February March q1 of
21. compare it if it's coming back there Now you're coming back in reality yeah And so I would say make sure you make it It's not just that the price is dropping From where it was yesterday it's where The price was dropping from where it was At the beginning of 21. and uh Tom so Those places you said San Francisco Skull I mean Austin it's you know it's Growing but like Seattle and San Francisco why are why is all this Inventory coming on people just leaving Because the people are trying to harvest What I read this morning Um and uh went to nerd wallet they have A really great writer there who is very Moderated and steady in its analysis and They were pointing out that these were The areas that had super spikes and the The tenor from sellers is hey prices are Starting to go down you know what I want To harvest the equity that I got in here I want to harvest the profit and then um Go figure something out well let me let Me read this article and I'm going to go To you so is now a good time to sell Your home wsg I'm going to put these two Stories together in today's housing Market it's important for sellers to Price their homes appropriately as Buyers are more price sensitive due to High mortgage rates and overpricing Could lead to fewer offers sellers in Middle and lower priced segments of the
Housing market are faring better while Those in a higher priced Market are Experiencing price drops uh according to Rob Barber's CEO of atom Data Solutions It is also essential to avoid Overpricing which can backfire as buyers Are often working with smaller budgets And don't want to spend time negotiating With the seller interesting overpricing Could backfire on the seller lastly Sellers may want to wait until later in The selling season to list their homes As the five days in which sellers Receive the best premium over their Asking price were during the third and Fourth weeks of May interesting so the Best time to sell your house is third or Fourth week of May May 23rd was found to Be the most profitable date with a 18.3 Percent premium above market price May 23rd Adam thoughts well I was chuckling A little bit because both of you guys Before even been asked they're like no Vinnie now is not the time to buy right Now okay as many every episode please so So it's now the time yeah in South Florida and so exactly well here's how I'm processing all this real estate wild Swings it's the same thing that we've Seen with everything we've seen with the U.S savings right rates and with credit Card debt since since basically covet Started we've seen these wild swings in How much money people are saving and now
How much debt they have these stimulus Checks the printing of the money The at the end of the day even with Inflation rates and interest rates covid Lockdowns everything we're still you Know on our path to this return to Normalcy right so that that's I think What's happening here now specifically Those cities we've all seen what's Happened in the stock market and NASDAQ Over the last 12 months they've been Deflated so you're talking Seattle You're talking San Francisco you're Talking Austin very Tech heavy cities Meanwhile you have cities that are big In lifestyle like South Florida Miami Boca West Palm Fort Lauderdale they're Increasing so ultimately what does this Come down to it's supply and demand Basic rule of Economics so I too would Look into a place in South Florida Relatively soon if possible but I don't Think that's on the horizon right now oh Great yeah I have to tell you like if There is a market where there will be Desperate sellers that's all I was gonna Ask you no there will be desperate Sellers because people have attended History has proven based on a lot of Studies done on 113 billion people that Have lived people have a tendency of Making bad decisions really and when They make bad decisions By the way by many scientists on both
Sides yeah so so meaning when bad Decisions are made things go for sale Which means there's a lot of things That's going to be on sale whether it's In a great Market bad Market terrible Market but some markets are going to get Hit harder than others there's no Question about that I'll start asking Last question not to cut you off Tom Just you three please just one that day Comes just because I'm not asking only If you promise to stop asking a question I'll tell everybody that's watching I Will never ask again just when Bliss one Day when it is right walk in and go no No okay that's it because my mom is I Have to handshake agreement we'll Probably be six months too late because No one can predict that yeah but what You just need to know is it's a hit and Miss you know you the other yesterday I Got interviewed by a guy he calls me Says yes and we'd like to interview you Because we saw that you uh sold your Wayne Gretzky card for record-breaking Number the two PSA TENS for 2.2 million So I'm like okay this guy's calling from Canada it's a big paper they're Interviewing I want to go to this year's Nationals the big card the convention That they do or I got I know a couple Hundred thousand people go to it so so How does it feel when you bought this Card for 540 000 and you sold it for 2.2
Million I felt it felt great I said but It didn't feel good six months later When one of my cards sold for 3.75 Billion oh wow wow But that's going to be a 20 million Dollar card in the next 10 20 years okay It's gonna that card you you you're not Gonna get your hands on that card you May never see that card for the rest of Your life ever again it's not a Unique Card here's the point to time everything You're you have to be very lucky to time And there's people that are going to Time it and get lucky with it uh you Want to make the right decision based on What's going on right now to me in my Opinion there's still a lot of Uncertainties there's uncertainties with Investigations there's uncertainties With interest rates there's Uncertainties with war there's Uncertainties with debt there's Uncertainties with leaders at the White House there's uncertainties with Election there's a lot of different Uncertainties this is a good season to Look for some opportunities I think when Unemployment if unemployment to me hits The five percent If there's a marker I would use to buy And make aggressive offers would be if Unemployment gets to five percent that Would be my marker so forget about what I'm saying forget about what anybody
Else is saying if unemployment's hitting Five percent that is a good time for you To say I think this is a good time for Me to go and make some offers because There's probably going to be some Desperate sellers that here's just what Happens to life and it's a very ugly Part of life I was a kid my parents went Through a divorce when divorces happen One of the two is going to say I don't Care what you do sell the house I Want My Equity out of the house so one has to Sell yeah it's like but wait babe if we Sell today why are you being so dumb and Greedy did you call me dumb I'm gonna Call the lawyers sell the house right Now it's worth 1.2 million if we wait For six months we can get 1.2 I don't Care sell it today you sell it for 9.50 Sure well the buyer made 250. yeah I Don't know if you understand what I'm Saying so they're buying rate 250 Divorces are about to go up if Unemployment goes up these things these Live things are going to happen it's Just it's what's gonna happen when People get fired life is hard finances Are hard meeting your expenses is Difficult and the first thing that takes The biggest hit is what marriage when Marriage takes a hit people make bad Decisions financially most people are Not ready financially most people are Not ready to get married financially let
Alone when they get married and a big Crisis takes place then they make some Desperate decisions which is selling Things that they should probably be Sitting on they sell it for pennies on a Dollar go ahead let me ask you I feel Agree that the hardest thing to do is Time the market you know they say that The one thing you need to know about Investing is not timing the market it's Time in the market we've all heard this Before Um I've I've learned this in real estate You know I'm more of a real estate guy I'm sorry I've learned this in the stock Market more stock market than a real Estate guy but what do you think is Harder to time Uh when it would be probably more Appropriate to say it's harder to time The stock market because there's less uh There's more things going on that that You kind of got to be paying attention To versus in the real estate market it's Interest rates right uh the job markets And um obviously dealing with people's Equities in their homes but as far as Timing goes because right now that's a Very good question you're asking I think It's a lot easier time real estate than It is for time stock market you're 100 Right last week was a weird thing the Stock market you guys see the stock Market every day bam bam bam bam bam
What the hell is going on right Bam Bam Walmart Target oh it's because of this Oh it's because of interest rate it's Because of that but you know real estate You know it's not a as faster of a Process I want to go into car sales to Show you something but before I do time I'm going to give you the last word on Uh real estate before we move to the Next topic uh I I was just gonna say Unemployment rate Seattle's unemployment Rate is almost four percent it been Hovering around 3.2 3.4 but we we heard About layoffs at who micro soft Amazon So we've seen a lot of tech layoffs so You've got the Seattle going on and to To Pat's point you know the unemployment Rate may not be a national figure you're Looking at it may be a local figure That's a very good point and it's a very Good point so what you see here Seattle Is flagged they were at 3.4 3.5 the end Of the year and with the things up there One thing I read is that the next next Announcement is probably going to be Four percent 4.1 in Seattle and what Pat Just said is keep your eyes out when it Hits five percent in your market and if You're in a steady industry you've got Something else going you have an Opportunity Rob pull up what I just sent You right there Tom you just made me Google unemployment rates by state you'd Be amazed who's the highest before you
Show it before you show it don't show it Don't show it I don't want them to see It what state do you think has the Highest unemployment right now what State has the lowest Very interesting because this is where I Was going because the national Unemployment rate is what three and a Half percent 34 35 right now okay what Do you think is the highest Love I don't think you're gonna get it As your first just take one guess you're Not gonna get I wouldn't guess I'm gonna Guess West Virginia you're saying California Los Angeles the lovely state Of Los Angeles I'm saying an obscure state that that Has lost a lot of money it's a big city No it is a big state city or state it's A big state I guess West Virginia Already okay I'm gonna go to Texas okay Go for it click on it zoom in it's Nevada oh Nevada's five percent go up no No go up in the bottom no no the other Way the other way yeah right there zoom In right there wow Nevada is like 5.2 Percent guys DC's 4.7 Illinois 47 Oregon 4-5 Delaware 4-4 and by the way go up to Washington is that a word that one guy If you can go back there you go is Delaware that one place where that guy Lost his job who got a hold of that Laptop That's Delaware right yeah it's probably
Affecting that but keep going down His dad's taking care of him you know Lowest Dakota's are the next and it's Florida Huh yeah let's go it's a round of Applause By the way this is kind of stuff that Governor Ron DeSantis can use when he's Running to say out of the we are the Number four lowest unemployment rate in America say something yeah in America Interesting to see this data how are you Processing Nevada almost double aware It's entertainment think about the Population means North Dakota South Dakota and Utah I mean probably my Sister was stationed and there's a bunch Of military bases there I'm wondering if That because you know if there's a base I will tell you this about Nevada though Like we just signed we're doing our next MGM event in August right and we get the Whole MGM Grand Arena here's what Happened We just we aren't right now negotiating For the next couple years two or three Years to sign with them and by the way They're booked for four years Did you hear what I said MGM Grand Arena Convention Center is booked for four Years insane so meaning I I convention Businesses back So it's interesting you're saying why is Nevada's on a can you Google wise
Nevada's unemployment rate the highest Why is Nevada's unemployment rate the Highest what would it be is and so Pat They do an event like some MGM does an Event every weekend oh is that what They're doing also their book for God That's insane why why is it about us Nevada's on the planet jumps 4.9 to the States also saw the large one in Las Vegas this housing market has cooled Amid Rising Hydro okay so what does that Have to unemployment zoom in now what's On unemployment the state also has the Largest increase from October 0.30 along With Oregon Department of Labor Nevada's Economy still recovering from a step Down turn a massive job loss so during The first ever pandemic the key Hotel Entertainment in this in the industry in Las Vegas has bounced back as gamblers Already returning okay great but the City's real estate market is as cooled Along with other hot spots amid a sharp Increase in interest rates property Manners in Las Vegas are seen more Available rentals I have I have a theory As as you're reading this because you Talked about the convention let's go the Chart okay they're just recovering is What it is so it's not up to four nines Yeah director so they're like we're Happy to be at the number we are today Well I think as you're telling me about The convention business there's a
Difference between like corporations and People just the average working person Corporations big events everything that We do now but all massive events That they're doing okay they're back to Business that's business as normal but The average person out there isn't Exactly balling out in Vegas these days With inflation and interest rates right Now so they're a little bit more Struggling versus what all the free Money was being printed that's how I'm Processing numbers and uh for people at Home now but is Yeah it's a great conference you know For them to know about the insurance Conference now but it's like uh one of The bigger like real estate does their Biggest conferences this is one of Insurance's biggest conferences that They do but again so this isn't really The fact that Nevada is taking a hit Nevada's just getting back into the Convention business all I'm saying to You is studied at five percent Unemployment number that's the number I Would be looking at in my market to look At whether it's time to buy a house or Not so if you like this clip and you Want to watch another one click right Here and if you want to watch the entire Podcast click right here [Music]
