In this short clip, Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth, Adam Sosnick and Vincent Oshana talk about the upcoming labor crash.
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Bank failures High inflation Rising Rates is the resilient jobs Market about To crack because for the longest time if You remember the last uh speech that Biden gave which what do you call when The president's given a speech from uh From the the house what do you call it State of the Union yeah and all he Bragged about was what unemployment is At three and a half percent more jobs Than any emperor in history you're the President and president yeah so but by The way but so so here's the problem What do you do when that's now gone Right the U.S labor market according to Wall Street Journal has been resilient Despite the pandemic and economic risks With employers adding 5.6 million jobs Since the start of 2022 which is a good Thing to talk about if you're Campaigning however recent banking Industry turmoil has raised concerns About whether the labor market momentum Will slip quitter confidence has Declined gradually since April 2022 okay The key word quitter confidence Indicating that workers are less Confident in their ability to job hop That's the key here what Tom talked About just a minute ago then they were a Year ago shorter hours amongst private Sector workers could indicate that Businesses are grown cautious and might Trim hours before laying off workers the
Diffusion index which is a gauge of Broad-based job gains and losses across Industries fell to its lowest since 2020 In February of 2023 real-time job Postings data which employment and Websites could offer timely Clues About about employers future hiring Intentions with some economic economies Suggesting that companies may pull down Job postings without laying off workers In response to slowing sales and Heightened uh uncertainty okay so we Recently you know I'll give you an idea For us even at home office we're running A company so when the company says we're Shifting the company shifted technology Okay company working with shifted Technology for about 90 days during Those it was about 60 days 70 days During those 60 70 days we couldn't hire Anybody We couldn't hire anybody okay because The system was updating perfect during That 60 70 days if you can't hire Anybody normally if you if you lose Somebody what do you do you hire someone You replace them if you lose two people You replace them right but if you and And that happens for a week for a month For two months let's just say you lose Five people You can't replace those people if There's a freeze right and you can't Hire for that 60 70 day period well
Imagine if companies are not only Letting people go but they're no longer Even hiring new people what's going to Start happening is the job that was Being done by a hundred people now needs To get done by 90 people by 80 people by 70 people by 60 people by 50 people Overworked which means which means some Of these companies it's either Overworked but there's a second thing to Advantage here's the second thing which Is scary to workers the scary thing to Workers is the following when companies Realize wait a minute We're getting everything done with 60 Employees and we were doing it at 100 And we don't even have to do overtime Yeah we were the additional 40 employees We had we were spending I don't know 2 Million a year now we're just paying 400 000 in overtime we're still saving 1.6 Million and we're doing it with 60 employees we don't need to go hire Those 40 people back maybe we had a lot Of employees here who were really not Doing you're right that's the Problem because there's no more hide and Go seek and you were able to get away Without working the lazy people are About to be exposed wow okay The Reckless entrepreneurs are about to get Exposed okay those people who were Working doing their job being diligent Improving they're also going to be
Exposed in a positive way the business Owners that didn't celebrate and get Cocky while money was so cheap in the Economic expansion they became arrogant Lazy sloppy those guys are gonna get Destroyed but the guys that improved You know found ways to get better they Took care of their guys that were in the Office on a daily basis they're going to Be exposed in a positive way the market Is open things are things are cheap Right now companies are going to be Bought left and right opportunities are Going to come where talent's going to Leave a company because the seal wasn't At work on a daily basis he's going to Take his talent somewhere else she's Going to take her Talent tomorrow we're Getting so many calls because we have so Many job openings right now we're doing Interviews right now on a daily basis Okay you're seeing people coming in here We're on top of each other in this Building we can't even fit people in This building here right now we have a Building issue we have a space issue Right now which is a great issue willing To move here yeah then they're not even From here they're coming from all over The world to come and be part of the Valuetainment team my office is the Men's bathroom now you know that right So anyway keep going what you're doing No that's fine that's right you're
Pooping again no because I'm working no Well you were pooping yesterday that's The difference But but the point here but the point Here but the point we have but the point Here is the fact that the the good People are finding each other it was Hard to find each other let me replace Good the hard-working drivers who are Ambitious couldn't really identify who Was who it was too blurry yeah two years Ago today they're like oh so you were Full of this entire time yeah They're real I'm going over there wow Damn I am with the real company thank God I'm staying put I'm not going Anywhere so that's the thing that's Going on today and by the way I'll go to You right after this for election if you Think about election wise this is going To hurt because to get reelected you Need to have some kind of success or a War so you need to have a great economy That no one's bothering everybody's like Yeah dude if the economy is this good Let It Roll let's go one more time with This guy yeah or you need to have a war Where it's fear anxiety and you're like Well we can't make a disruption because We're doing this one of those two things If you no longer have this data to say Look what a great job we're doing with Unemployment now what day they're going To be talking about yeah well I'll just
Just really fast and Adam you brought up The point and Pat I'm happy you brought It back all this I've been here for next Month has been by one year Meg I moved Here it's crazy it's crazy in May wow All this talk Adam recession thank you The recession the you know inflate Everything that's happening and all that I like for someone that doesn't really Know like like as much as you guys know I feel like like this bubble is is Getting to a point where it's gonna pop But this Administration is like saving It so it doesn't pop under this watch is That what is that's what happened Because remember the White House changed The definition of recession live what we Were we were in here and they're like no Two quarters now that's not they changed It on Wikipedia So Adam do you feel like They're saving it because they know it's Gonna pop but they don't want it to Happen under their watch what well yeah Any politician doesn't want something Like that to happen under their watch Yeah I think what Pat brings up is a Good point because there's basically two Parts to a company yeah there's the Employer the business owner the Entrepreneur and that's the employees Yeah okay the workers and I don't know What percentage of the company are the Entrepreneur you know c-suite Executives Five percent ten percent ninety percent
Of the company are the workers well Sometimes it's one lonely guy who Founded the company yeah yeah up in the Up in the attic yeah and he's hired all These people yeah exactly so I think you Know Pat's more speaking to the business Owners I'm more speaking to the Employees Um I'm not a CEO I'm not a business Owner so I I never kind of step out of Place with that that's really why I Respect what Pat and bizdoc do you know My message is usually to the employees To the Vinnies of the world who's like Buddy you want to start a company but I'm just hire me to do your next what do You say about this though what do you Say about we got that point what are you Saying about this about what's the Question no what about about what what We just talked about for the last time What do you have thoughts on this one Thing Pat mentioned and the diffusion Index just think of that as the Thermometer on jobs and the diffusion Index is at lowest it's been since April Of 2020. Rob can you go back to that Chart you just showed It's the lowest it's been since April 2020. would you like to see what the Market was doing in April of 2020 that Was the covid Free Fall remember that Pat look at that So they're saying that this temperature
Gauge on jobs is as low as it's been Since then So it's it's real folks and it's coming And you need to manage yourself Accordingly so if you like this clip and You want to watch another one click Right here and if you want to watch the Entire podcast click right here Thank you [Music]
