“This Looks Bad!” – Reaction To Jerome Powell Increasing The Rates To New Highs

In this short clip, Patrick Bet-David, Adam Sosnick, Tom Ellsworth and Vincent Oshan react to Jerome Powell increasing rate to new highs.

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Bed share opens door to faster rate Moves and a higher Peak okay a higher Peak So uh uh so so uh Powell's comments were that declares Acknowledgment yet that the recent Reports shown inflation remains stubborn And that the job market remains Resilient are likely to shake shown Inflation uh uh up the policy trajectory For American central banks Powell Suggested that the peak rate projection Of five to five and a quarter for Interest rates would need to be adjusted By more than that without specifying how Much more Tom how bad is this going to Get Um we said it was happening and it's Here right now just for everybody's Reference Um the federal rate is Four seven five four point five returns It's in a quarter point span the way They do it and what that means that's What banks borrow the money from and Then they turn that into car loans Mortgages and things like that At the beginning of the year Pat people Thought that the rate increases were Going to stop probably around May or June and then start getting some Reductions yep so that car loans would Be more affordable as we hit back to School mortgages may be more affordable

Fourth quarter third quarter that's what People thought that this first half of Tale of Two Cities first half of 23 kind Of tough second half of 23. things Getting better a little bit of sunshine Well economic data came out and it it Looks bad it looks like inflation is Really hot and not being tamed in the Last podcast we talked about Larry Summers said hey the fed's really behind The curve here they got to make a move And guess what Jerome Powell yesterday Said we're going to be raising rates He won't say how much but everybody is Basically and the market has reacted Everybody saw the market down that it's Going to be a half a point in about a Week on March 22nd what they're worried About is that it'll also be a half a Point on May 3rd and then a quarter Point in June a quarter point in July so That is a point and a half that would Take it not to the 5.5 remember Everybody's thinking 5.5 but all the way To six maybe six and a quarter and so With those rates up mortgages uh just Hit a wall we covered on the last Podcast a 28-year low and the number of Mortgages per week 28 years Phenomenal and so it basically Translates to Carl car loan percentages Interest rates are not going down Anytime soon probably not until fourth Quarter the way this is looking because

I want to show you this I'm going to Show you this if you can play this clip With Jerome Powell yesterday him and Senator Kennedy going back and forth and Uh what's important about this it's Three minutes and 45 seconds I ask Elon If he can speed up the stuff on Twitter I don't think they have it yet to do the Playback speed I think you just have to Play it at the speed that they have but Everybody has to watch this exchange Watch this typically when you see these Things what do you think about the guy's Not going to admit to anything he's Going to play he's going to Play dumb he's going to play this yeah Watch what Powell does he does some Stonewall he just tells you yep that's What's going to happen that's what's Going to happen there is zero fluffle Answers here he straight up gives it to You play the clip watch this you're Raising interest rights yes you're Raising interest rates to slow the Economy are you not Yes to cool the economy off Um and one of the ways you measure your Success other than Fluctuation and gross domestic product Is the unemployment rate Is it not yes one of the measures okay So in effect this I'm not being critical When you're slowing the economy you're Trying to put people out of work that's

Your job is it not Really we're trying to we're trying to Restore price stability no you're trying You're trying to raise my wages you're Trying to raise the unemployment rate That me I know you don't like the phrase So let me strike it you're trying to Raise the unemployment rate are you not Now we're not trying to raise you we're Trying to realign supply and demand Which could happen through a bunch of Channels like for example uh you know Just job openings we put it another way Okay The Economist did a did a wonderful Study Then look to at 10 Disinflationary periods in America going All the way back to the 1950s Disinflation is what you're trying to do It's a slowing in the rate of inflation Am I right yes In other words prices don't go down they Just don't go up as fast Deflation is when prices actually go Down you're trying to achieve Disinflation are you not yes we are okay Based on history in the ten times That we got inflation down disinflation Since the 1950s In order to reduce inflation by two Percent Unemployment had to go up 3.6 percent Now that's history is it not

I don't have the numbers in front of me But yes the standard has been that there Are five recessions and downturns one Confedestration right now the current Inflation rate 6.4 percent in the Current unemployment rate 3.4 percent Now if history is right I'm not asking You to to I can't blame anybody but if history is Right unless you get some help In order to get inflation down from 6.4 Percent To let's say 4.4 percent and the Unemployment rate is gonna have to rise To seven percent based on history that's What the record would say okay and to Get inflation down to 2.2 watch this Bank Here we go An immutable fact watch unemployment Would have to go to 10.6 percent would It not oh no I wouldn't I wouldn't That's what the record that's what the History shows yeah yeah I don't think That kind of a number is is at all I Know you're reluctant to admit it and You don't want to get in the middle of a Policy Uh dispute But I think it's undeniable It's undeniable That the only way we're going to get This sticky inflation down is to attack It on the monetary side which you're

Doing And on the fiscal side which means Congress has got to reduce the rate of Growth of spending and reduce reduce the Rate of growth Yes you do I get that you don't want to get in the Middle of that fight But the more we help On the fiscal side the fewer people You're going to have to put out of work Isn't that a fact Please answer good workout that way it Couldn't work out that would work out That way yes sir thank you thank you County Senator Reid of responses Zero hiding anything now here's the Thing Kennedy is a what he's a republican Right from Louisiana Jerome Powell was Assigned by who Trump trump and he's Still here by who so he is He he is both unbiased but he knows I Think he's disliked by both sides okay Let me tell you you're saying disliked Or Bible dislikes He's disliked by both sides and let me Tell you this is going to sound weird He's exactly where he needs to be okay Here's here's my opinion yes you have to Not be spending more money and forcing Congress to not have a bigger budget yes Yes we have to do yes you have to kind Of go through this what do you want to

Do delay the time bomb even more and More and more for other people what else Do you need to do with this we're going To go through a season that's gonna suck I'm talking to this guy yesterday first Question asked how much money you got Saved he says we're good okay good Because you know one of our Moses yeah You got to always have your cash in Place so you don't have to make Desperate decisions I said just so you Know how long do you think this is going To last I'm asking this guy was in a Real estate business him and his wife Are on he says Pat We're not we're not counting 23 as a Year where anything's gonna go our way I Say that's good because that's probably What's going to end up happening to the Real estate and a mortgage Racing for The storm right they are and by the way There are some great Crusaders who are In the real estate on the mortgage side That have convinced everybody Everything's going to be fine this Season is coming and and and when Unemployment remember when you ask the Question what should I do when all of a Sudden what number should he and I said We looked at unemployment by States and Remember Nevada was that five percent Wow look at Nevada and it's like no they Went from 23 to 1000 to 5 okay If this thing goes the way it's going

Unemployment hits five six seven he's Saying 10 point something percent listen When is the last time unemployment hit 10 outside of Kobe outside don't count Covet outside of pad that's ten percent I think the nice man is in Hospice Care In Plains Georgia was this is Jimmy Carter before before I was even born is That what it is seven late seventies I Think it's 79 80. when is the last time If you just go to history of Unemployment rate that's all you got to Do history of certainly not in my Lifetime ah history of unemployment Radio 1982 10.1 the last time I hit Double digits was 1982 10.1 and by the Way do you know the month that uh Joe Biden became president I think that Month or the following month I did a Video comparing him to Jimmy Carter Those two guys have all we have a case Study of this it's called Jimmy Carter And we're there yeah yeah I mean Obviously if it gets that extreme Right that's what you're saying if it Gets to 10 percent It okay so if you don't do that then What is the alternative imagine if Powell doesn't do so let's say Powell Doesn't know what he's doing right now What happens the economy overheats Inflation runs amok you know pricing is Out of control he's he's I think Jerome Powers exactly right yeah drone pile is

Doing what he's got to do I agree this Guy he's got and by the way you know What I like about the way he took his Position he came you know what he looked Like he looked like Listen guys I don't give a what you Ask yes we're raising thank you yeah you Look like but left right middle we're Raising the raids what do you like yeah It's almost like that yeah I think what Is it's funny because Senator John Candy from you from yeah it Seems like a character of a guy just Don't know what the hell he's talking About but he actually in essence did Know it just doesn't sound like it yeah But so he he's uh he's a he's a Incredible dude he's been around forever He's a crazy Senator if he gets past his Accenture Um he is you can't get past the accent But he was a former treasurer of Louisiana Senator attorney lawyer he Just happens to sound like he's a wild Bill but what what what no somebody's Saying yeah bang bang what what we also Know is that oh I don't know what just Happened no it'd be it's the equivalent Of a guy trying to come up to bizdoc on Who's been around the block a little bit But not nowhere near bizdoc's level and Biz Doc's just like okay I'm hearing a Pitch for the billionth time about Raising Capital but how many

Conversations do you think Jerome Powell Is an economist extraordinaire this Guy's a senator who kind of knows a Little bit I appreciate the questions But Jerome Powell is a beast and I think He's doing a great job and I think You're really even temper for that yeah Even temperament he's almost like the United Way what's his birthday real quick Jerome Powell I just this is random February 32nd then no no no no you Nailed that I'm buying February 4th all Right that's also my birthday so I'm a Big 32nd 36 I am but I if you could give A grade to Jerome Powell not a household Name at this juncture in in the economy Right now what grade do you give him Today I give him a solid a not an A minus not An A plus just a solid a um yeah I think He's got a hard job bro I think he's got You know what's the hardest job here's The hardest job so think about it this Way the hardest job is when you're about To make a decision And your mom and dad have never ever Agreed on anything in their lives and They're divorced so whatever your dad Agrees on your mom disagrees whatever Your mom thinks it's a good idea your Dad this is such a great analysis you go To your mom and you say hey Mom here's What I'm thinking about I'm thinking

About Lower interest rates what do you think Terrible Matt tell you to do that It's the first time ever in 50 years Your parents have disagreed on the same Thing and you're confused and you still Think you're making the right decision That's Jerome Powell He's in a rough place but listen between Unemployment and everything you know the Bottom line here and let's bring it home So everybody can understand this the Economy is in a pickle you get Unemployment you got the interest rates I mean these shows 100 no we're in a pickle so basically You guys know all the questions I always Ask so I have to wait till 2024 to think About buying unless there's a shift in Listings in South Florida right pretty Much was there do you have any graphs to Back up this pickle no but but you went Through the numbers so we're we're is There like a chart that I can see to Understand like I understand the Cheerleader being the economy and Jerome Powell is headed upstairs again next Week But do you have a chart you have Something to actually if anything I Think we might yeah Let's take a look at this yeah this is Called a pickle chart yes so On January 1st the consensus estimates

Of economic people was the pickle on the Left see thinking that it was going to Get up to about 5.4 start to lose a Little steam and then and second half of The year is going to be looking a little Bit better the revised estimates that We're hearing now because the ACT the Economy is still overheated is the Pickle on the right and unfortunately That is a much more formidable pickle Than the American economy was expecting Got it yep yeah and that's it and so the Board chair you're doing is heading for A half a percent romp next week on March 22nd another half Point fling probably What is that what is the national Average of a pickle interest rate size Uh I don't know if that's where you're Going with this yeah I'm still sitting Here waiting to see where well so go Ahead Jenny what are you going to say so Because I took notes so a couple quarter Point quickies in June in July and then The interest rates will start deflating Or that's right and that's when that's When mostly pal you know we'll see what He needs to see and he kind of runs out Of steam in September we definitely Don't want economy to run out of Statements save the cheerleader because I really want to buy a townhouse or a House for the audience we with uh on Behalf of uh the crew we'd like to

Apologize for you having to see a couple Pickles here just so you guys know this Is nothing uh it's a pickle so if you Like this clip and you want to watch Another one click right here and if you Want to watch the entire podcast click Right here [Music]

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